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What Financial Conditions Tell Us (Two Charts and a Prediction)
It seems every bank, including central banks, publishes a financial conditions index these days. And because financial conditions typically lead the economy, it makes sense to track them. In fact, they...
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Learning from the 1980s: The Power and Irony of “MDuh”
Forget about big hair, Ray-Bans, and Donkey Kong. Don’t even think about Live-Aid, Thriller, and E.T. Above all else, the 1980s were the gravy days of the money supply aggregates. Beginning in late...
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An Inflation Indicator to Watch, Part 1
“Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” —Milton Friedman Have you ever questioned Milton Friedman’s famous claim about inflation? Ever heard anyone else question it? Unless you...
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An Inflation Indicator to Watch, Part 2
“Inflation comes from too much money chasing too few goods.” –Many an economics professor But does it really? In Part 1 of this series, I said I would challenge popular beliefs about inflation, while...
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An Inflation Indicator to Watch, Part 3
“During the 1980s and 1990s, most industrial-country central banks were able to cage, if not entirely tame, the inflation dragon.” —Ben Bernanke Ben Bernanke began his oft-cited “helicopter speech” in...
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A Recession Indicator for Independent Thinkers, Part 1
Last month we took sides in the ongoing debate about the Great Yield Curve Scare—we argued that the curve hasn’t flattened enough to deliver a strong recession signal at this point in time. We showed...
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A Recession Indicator for Independent Thinkers, Part 2
Have you ever lacked for information about America’s various debt burdens? Twenty-odd years ago, if you paid any attention to debt, you might have relied on original source data to stay current. But...
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U.S. Recession Watch: The Six-Cycle Forecast (Continued)
“If I can’t picture it, I can’t understand it.” —Attributed to Albert Einstein “In order to properly understand the big picture, everyone should fear becoming mentally clouded and obsessed with one...
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6 Reasons Why This Is (Or Isn’t) The Worst Economy Since The Great Depression
When the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee draws the boundaries on the current recession, it’s unlikely to stand out as an especially long one. In fact, by the time the committee publishes the...
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